Boat Luna Rossa
I really haven't, as accused, waited to write an America's Cup prediction column until all my colleagues of the Fourth Estate wrote theirs, and then cued off their predictions. Yes, I have read most of them. Almost all predict New Zealand will win this thing over Italy, if not with ease, at least decidedly.
The other day, the camps opened their gates and let the public witness "the dropping of the skirts," a curious sort of pre-Cup holiday now institutionalized - in sailing only of course.
What it means is the secretive shrouds keeping the underside and appendages of the IACC racing yachts hidden from view are finally dropped away in a show of frankness aimed at suppressing the espionage that in past Cups has proceeded at a feverish and undignified pace.
What we saw at "Declaration Day" is just what we expected. The camps are using variations of the same narrow boat with bulb wings placed in somewhat different positions: New Zealand has winglets placed amidships on the bulb while Luna Rossa has chosen the more conventional aft positioning.
Can anything be gathered from a half-hour look at the two undersides? Of course not. However long the "experts" looked and debated the boats this week, there is only one way of knowing which is faster: put them in the water next to each other. That will happen tomorrow.
It might be worth mentioning that after sailing 15 races against each other, Luna Rossa and America One still have no clear answer as to whether boat speed was the major factor in Prada's comeback 5-4 win over AmericaOne in the challenger finals.
In some conditions, on some points of wind, Luna Rossa looked quicker, but in other situations Paul Cayard and company had the legs they needed to run away from Italy's red-trimmed silver bullet.
So we just might find that boat speed is not a factor in the coming best-of-nine Cup match. Like the finals match, picking the correct windshifts and crew work may easily trump the speed card.
Before predicting the winner, let me bare my heart and say that New Zealand is perhaps the sweetest place I have ever visited. The lifestyle is gentle, intelligent, cultured. Kiwis are sports-minded but prefer rational, thoughtful conversation to the kind of mindless brawling that passes for discourse in our country. (No, I will never listen to Howie Carr or Rush Limbaugh again.)
From the country's stunning physical beauty to the South Pacific climate, to the wonderful seafood and home-grown wines, New Zealand should be the very next destination of anyone planning a vacation.
So that's what my heart says: Let the Kiwis have at least one successful defense of the Cup. The fabulous venue they have built here will be the America's Cup standard from now on. They are marvelous hosts, and the sailing waters here are challenging and infinitely interesting.
But rationality intrudes. I'm afraid the Kiwis will be slightly off the pace for this America's Cup.
Five years ago in San Diego there was absolutely no question about how the script would play out. New Zealand had come to town with boats from a different speed zone and everyone knew it. The only question was: Could the US defender skippered by Cayard win a single race in nine? Answer: No. Never, said Cayard, had he felt so hopelessly unable to affect the outcome of a regatta in which he sailed.
It came to me while watching Race 8 of the finals. Prada was down, 4-3, to AmericaOne and a loss would send them home. Never since January 1998 had the Italians felt this kind of pressure. Syndicate boss Patrizio Bertelli had thoroughly scolded his team. Tactician Torben Grael looked demoralized for having made the losing call in Race 7. How could the Prada team come back, relying on boat speed only?
But rather than play it safe, Grael and Prada skipper Francesco de Angelis came out superaggressive and tried to tag out Cayard in the prestart. Then, catching AmericaOne too close to windward on the second leg, they luffed Cayard into a penalty that won Luna Rossa that critical race. They sailed with the kind of risky, roughneck bravado that they learned from none other than Cayard himself.
Meanwhile, all those days, in fact every day for over two years, Team New Zealand has had only mock races. With no other defender to spar with, the kind of battle toughness that the Prada team brings into this match has simply been unavailable to the Kiwis.
Luna Rossa designer Doug Peterson also designed Black Magic, New Zealand's runaway Cup winner in 1995. He knows both boats intimately, and though he is obviously not unbiased, he said, "New Zealand have a problem. They're on a completely different page. They're going to look very bad, very soon."
Without wishing any such harsh judgment on Team New Zealand, my pick is Prada's Luna Rossa, 5-2.
"Oh Luna Rossa [red moon], are you waiting for me?" goes the maudlin Italian folk song.
Get used to it. We're going to hear "Luna Rossa" plenty in the days ahead.
The Boston Globe
February 17, 2000
TONY CHAMBERLAIN, GLOBE STAFF